How Can Idiots Beat Experts? 5 Ways From Nassim Taleb... And Why The Titanic Saved Your Life
A wrap of episodes 178-184 of the With Joe Wehbe Podcast
The Titanic might have saved your life… because if it hadn’t sunk in the early 1900’s, we would have continued to build bigger and bigger ocean-liners, leading to an even bigger disaster.
Our species has not yet evolved enough to develop a strong understanding of risk, and it’s missing from the education system. Lucky for us, there is one man in particular who is moving at a faster pace…
I’m experimenting with some new ideas on the With Joe Wehbe Podcast, including series unpacking notable thinkers about education, career, learning and life — and making them applicable to today’s go-getters, thinkers, young entrepreneurs and Constant Students.
Here are some of the people I want to cover:
Alan Watts
Peter Thiel
Tim Ferriss
Seth Godin
Naval Ravikant
Ken Robinson
But I’m starting with one of my favorite public figures… Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
🔍5 Ways Idiots Can Outperform Experts
Taken from podcast episodes, particularly #182.
Don’t be afraid to bet against the experts. In his book Antifragile, Taleb’s imaginary character (aptly named Fat Tony) makes a shrewd observation — though the experts are always making predictions, they are usually wrong. So he bets against them, and becomes a millionaire. Blockbuster refused to pay $50 million for Netflix in the 2000’s, Michael Bury defied Wall Street to short the Housing Market and GFC.
Understand that everyone else listens to the experts. This is what creates the opportunity for you to win big — because it’s so ‘unlikely’ in their eyes. It also requires you be resolute in your convictions.
Persist! You don’t need to be right every time, you just need to end up ahead. The experts aren’t wrong on every single occasion. We’ll talk about this next week on the podcast.
Remember the Green Lumber Fallacy — explained in episode #182, this fallacy is named after an investor who made millions trading green lumber but didn’t even know what it was. In contrast, people with elaborate theories still manage to lose big.
Instead of trying to be smart, try not to do anything stupid — that is, the opposite of an expert. Don’t get into excessive debt, don’t spend years studying a degree without thinking about where it leads, don’t rush into things, don’t spend excessive time and money working on ideas that haven’t been validated yet, don’t isolate yourself from feedback and perspective on your work… this is not taught in our current system of ‘education’, but we can deduce that if you avoid the stupid things, you’re left with success. Trying too hard to be smart activates ego, emotional justifications and a whole string of cognitive biases. Try to avoid stupidity instead.
Taleb has a lot of wisdom — I hope I’m able to translate some of it to the rest of us mere mortals in the podcast series. In episodes 181-194 I wrap up the biggest ideas I’ve taken from him including:
Lecturing Birds How To Fly
Optionality (another of those things that is more useful than generic ‘intelligence’)
Taleb’s recipe for innovation (warning, academia and science take a beating)
The truth about randomness and risk
Why you need to look outside of the usual thinking, habits, beliefs and practices of an industry to innovate it.
🎙 Recent Episodes
Below I’ve linked to Youtube episodes.
You can also go to your preferred podcast player here like Spotify, Apple Podcasts or anywhere else you listen to podcasts.
#178: From Viktor Frankl To Jim Collins — The 5 Lines of Wisdom That Have Most Influenced Me (6 min 33 sec)
#179: Is There A Da Vinci In Everyone? A Reflection On The Podcast (9 min 35 sec)
#180: What Is It That I'm Trying To Do? (6 min 15 sec)
#181: MINI-SERIES — Nassim Taleb On Education, Career And Learning (22:03)
#182: Nassim Taleb On How Idiots Can Beat Experts (10 min 30 sec)
#183: What’s Better Than Resilience, And Why Is It Missing From The World? – Nassim Taleb Series (12 min 14 sec)
#184: Nassim Taleb On How The Titanic Saved Your Life And Why You Shouldn’t Deprive Yourself Of Stressors (15 min 27 sec)
🔄 Not up to these yet? See previous issues
Episodes 171-177 — about where university is useful, the pressures on education decisions for young people and our suppression of teen entrepreneurs and the creativity of youth.
Episodes 161-170 — about the biases we put into advice and finding our direction.
Episodes 154-160 — why you need a compass, not a map, and why people say ‘one day’.
Episodes 147-153 — broad thinking about careers
Episodes 140-146 — open-mindedness and thinking, an important precursor to discussing any educational or career breakthrough concepts
Episodes 122-139 — foundational ideas about education and learning.
🎁 Bonus — Complete Workshop For Podcasters
This is a recent recording from The Constant Student Community to help two long-term friends launch their podcast With The Chiefs — which deep dives into the sacred art of running.
It goes through a comprehensive A-Z of setting up and automating a podcast — just a little goody to show my love for you all!
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